Gujarat Elections : The Tripartite Run and a Predictable Victory

Image Credits : The Quint

The 15th legislative assembly elections of Gujarat have been held in two phases on 1st December and 5th December. The current BJP government under the leadership of Bhupendra Patel was re-elected. The party managed to win a record number of seats 156 out of 182 and 52.5 vote share. Let's analyse different factors and trends as well as the performance of each party in the Gujarat elections in order to get a clear picture.

Bharatiya Janata Party once again created history in Gujarat by winning for the 7th time in a row in the assembly elections of the state. Besides the threats of corruption and triangular contest from opposition parties, it was able to secure a massive number of seats in the elections.AAP as a newcomer has performed well by winning 5 out of 182 seats and 12.9 per cent of the vote share and qualified for the status of a national party. However, the Congress which is still the major opposition party in the state has underperformed. The number of seats has reduced from 78 to just 17 and also saw a massive loss of vote share in its strongholds.

A BRIEF ELECTION HISTORY OF GUJARAT

Elections to the Vidhan Sabha of Gujarat have been held since the division of Bombay state to Maharashtra and Gujarat in 1960. The first elections to the second assembly of Gujarat has been held in 1962, in which the Indian national congress won with a clear majority and this trend continued till the eighth assembly election of 1990. In the 7th assembly elections of 1985 congress raised its seat count to an all-time record of 149 but the wind was not at all in favour of congress anymore. In the eighth assembly elections, the Janata Dal got the majority and INC were forced to join the coalition. It was the last time congress held power in the state. In the ninth assembly elections of 1995, the BJP government came into power under the leadership of Keshubai Patel. After him, Narendra Modi became the Chief Minister and continued to win in the 2002,2007, and 2012 elections, the present chief minister Bhupendra Patel has been appointed less than one and a half years back replacing Vijay Rupani.

BEHIND THE TREMENDOUS VICTORY

The Bharatiya Janata party has won a landslide majority of seats that has replaced the record of congress in 1985 by winning 156 seats out of 182. As the prime minister’s own state, it has been under close monitoring of the central leadership of the BJP. There were significant challenges raised by the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress but it was an easy go for BJP as compared to the 2017 elections. The BJP has implemented its strategy in a perfect way in the state. Every exit poll surveys were in favour of the BJP government. Let us analyze different factors and the performance of the BJP in the state.

THE MODI FACTOR

It has been more than 8 years since Narendra Modi left the chief minister ship of Gujarat but still, his influence on Gujarati people hasn’t diminished. As hailing from the state itself , it has been a prestige issue for Narendra Modi from the very beginning. Since 1998 the present prime minister Narendra Modi has been a significant part of the Gujarat government, he became chief minister after Keshubai Patel and continued in 2002,2007, and 2012 elections. He only left the post in 2014 after becoming the prime minister of India. The people also considered Modi as one among them as he addressed the campaigns in the local Gujarati dialect creating a positive image for him as well as the BJP campaigning in the state. Through this, he was not only aiming for Gujarat but also the 2024 Lok Sabha election for a third continuous term.

CAMPAIGNING AND STRATEGY

The credit for this result can be given to the central leadership of the BJP for leading the campaigning and developing a strategy for the state. The votes mainly came for the party than for the candidates. From the very beginning itself it was successful in analyzing the problems of people, managing the social media handles of the candidates etc. It was in October, just before the elections that Modi announced a Rs. 79,000 crore development package that is to be implemented in the state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself led the campaign in Gujarat. He campaigned for 8 days in the state, the campaigners also included union home minister Amit Shah who addressed more than 50 rallies in the state and JP Nadda who is the current national president of BJP. Digital war rooms were set up in almost every part of the state by involving the youth.

The Patidar community has always been a decisive factor in the state, including 1.5 crore voters out of the 6.90 crores, which can influence around 60 seats. This population is largely around the Saurashtra region which is responsible for 48 seats. In 2017 BJP was not able to win that many seats due to the Patidar agitation which was led by Hardik Patel. This time they were successful in bringing Hardik Patel to their campaign and also the implementation of a 10 per cent reservation to the Patidar community in the economically weaker session(EWS)category has influenced the votes. They announced the CM candidate Bhupendra Patel and 25 per cent of other candidates from the Patidar community .48 candidates were fielded by the party of which 41 turned victorious. Congress gave tickets to 41 candidates of which only three won and AAP which targeted Patidar youth gave tickets to 55 candidates in which only 2 emerged victorious. BJP was also able to make inroads to the tribal belt in which it won 24 out of 27 reserved seats which were the earlier stronghold of the Congress party.

BJP was also able to give candidature to the turncoats which are mainly from the congress party, in which most of them have won. It was very successful in keeping the OBC voters as well. The rising fears of anti-incumbency were properly managed by the central leadership and it was also successful in closely monitoring AAP as well as congress and has tried to diminish their influence.

INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS AND ITS PERFORMANCE - CONGRESS STILL IN THE DEADLOCK OF FAILURE ?

The grand old party has witnessed its worst performance in the Gujarat elections 2022, The vote share shrunk just to 27.3 per cent from 41 per cent in 2017. it was not even able to open accounts in 21 out of 33 districts. How come a party that has been in power in the state for decades just shrunk this way? Let us analyze the reasons for the worst performance of congress in the state.

One of the main reasons for the failure of congress was the failure of its campaigning itself . Although it announced a detailed 40 member star campaigners list way before the elections which included the names of congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and senior leaders like Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, Ashok Gehlot, Sachin Pilot, Kannayya Kumar etc. , still the campaigning was not upto the mark. Soniya Gandhi who was second on the list of star campaigners hasn’t even campaigned for a single day before the first phase of the elections . Rahul Gandhi who was continuing with his Bharat Jodo Yatra participated in the campaigning for a single day. However, his Bharat Jodo yatra was able to win support from other states , yet it is still unknown why he skipped the yatra in Gujarat. Other leaders include the newly elected president of the congress party Mallikarjun Kharge who campaigned

4 days in the state.

Another major problem that the congress party faced was the lack of wide acceptability of the issues they put forward to the public. The issues like inflation, and price rise were the problems faced by the people. However, Rahul Gandhi’s single-day campaign in the state touched on the topics of Modi’s economic policies, privatization in education and health sectors, crony capitalism and its impact on micro, small and medium-scale enterprises. Some of the leaders from the state have even asked not to send anyone from high command for campaigning who doesn’t know the local realities in the state.

Another major issue that congress faced was keeping the interests of caste groups. Congress terribly failed in making sure the support of the caste groups. The Patidar community consists of 25% of the population in the state, it is necessary to win the support of the majority community in order to get the votes, but it is earlier this year that the Patidar leader Hardik Patel left the congress party and joined BJP. He led the Patidar reservation agitation that sought the "other backward class" status for the Patidar caste, the addition of Hardik Patel was indeed a big win for BJP in maintaining the Patidar support. Another prominent leader who left the congress was Alpesh Thakor who led a prominent role in winning 41 per cent votes in the 2017 elections. However, congress failed to keep him on their side as he joined in BJP in 2019. The issue of defection as we witnessed in many other states is evident in Gujarat as well.

In the 2017 elections major share of the congress party’s vote came from the second round of elections that includes the tribal belts and Saurashtra region but this time congress failed to keep up their interests as well and meanwhile, AAP got a record vote share from this area. The votes from the congress party haven’t gone to BJP at a large level but it is the AAP that stole its vote bank and limited it to just 27 per cent of votes . Let us analyze the campaigning strategy as well as the performance of AAP in the state.

AAM AADMI PARTY - RISE IN AAP ; A CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION IN GUJARAT

After the continuous success in Delhi and Punjab, AAP is trying to expand its foot to other states as well. With its great performance in Gujarat as a newcomer, AAP has become the 9th national party in India. Within 10 years of its formation it has been able to form governments in Delhi and Punjab as well as qualify for the level of a national party , which is not at all a small foot .

The strategies they used in Punjab and Delhi were repeated in Gujarat as well. The party fielded candidates in 181 constituencies out of 182 and gave the outlook of a triangular contest in almost every seat in Gujarat. It has been able to reach out to people in rural and urban areas as well. AAP managed to win a large share of rural votes which went to congress earlier. It has roped party workers from Punjab and Delhi for campaigning. Along with this the common slogan of ‘Delhi model development’ was repeated in Gujarat also. It became very successful in reaching out to people with promises of common needs such as free electricity, free access to water, and free health care and even promised a monthly allowance of 1000 rupees to all women above 18 years of age .

The campaign was led by Party chief and Delhi Chief Minister Aravind Kejriwal himself, the star campaigners also included Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann, and Harbajan Singh. It made sure that the campaign was reaching at the grassroot level. Although the state leadership of AAP largely was from the Patidar community still it was able to pocket the entire tribal belt which was earlier the stronghold of the congress. In the Koli and the Patidar - dominated seats, congress won 3 and AAP won 4 and BJP got 46 seats. The remaining seat was won by SP .

The campaigning of AAP had hit the congress badly and favoured BJP in a way. The congress blames AAP for the massive victory of the BJP. The massive campaigning of AAP gave a picture of the triangular contest in the election. Due to this triangular contest, the BJP was able to increase its vote share and it is the congress that lost its vote share. The AAP got 12.91 votes which are largely from the congress vote banks.BJP has only increased their vote share by 3 per cent it is clearly evident that the triangular contest resulted in the split of votes which largely benefitted the BJP and affected congress. This triangular contest gave another option for unsatisfied voters of congress and it is evident in the vote share as well.

UNUSED OPPORTUNITIES

There have been many issues that were prevailing in the state. Along with this, the BJP has given many opportunities to opposition parties but they have failed to get wide acceptance through these chances . Huge protests broke out in the tribal region of south Gujarat after the announcement of the Maharashtra –Gujarat –Par-Tapi –Narmada river linking project, the protest was led by the congress leader Anant Patel and the government was forced to scrap the project. Anant Patel is the only candidate who won in South Gujarat’s tribal belt. The pay grade revision issue and regularization of permanent and temporary contract staff was another such issue that the opposition could have made use of. The failure of congress and AAP to convert such issues to a mass protest has led BJP to continue its unbeaten run.

The issue of development has always been a major question in Gujarat. Though it has been able to top the economic indicators the growth rates in social indicators was not at all impressive. The question of development and corruption came into question when the bridge over the Machchhu river in Morbi district collapsed on October 30th which lead to the death of 135 people and left many injured. AAP chief and Delhi chief minister Aravind Kejriwal accused the BJP government of massive corruption. However BJP managed to win its five-time sitting seat despite the disaster, which has been another example of the failure of a good opposition .

THE ULTIMATE WIN

BJP got another 5 years in Gujarat in total which makes 32 years , lacking just 2 years to break the record of 34 years created by the Left in Bengal. It has been a clear victory for the BJP without tight competition and it was able to secure 52.3 percent of the vote share to set an all-time record. The active central leadership of the BJP and campaigning have held a significant part in this victory . The failure of the opposition to make use of the issues the state was facing and the lack of good campaigning and leadership affected the congress. The emergence of AAP in the state as a significant force also led to the underperformance of congress. AAP as a new entrant got a significant vote share and won 5 seats, the major share of its votes came from the congress vote banks and the triangular contest resulted in the split of votes which ultimately benefited the BJP. With its victory in Gujarat BJP has stretched its dreams for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections for a consecutive third term and AAP has been raised to the list of national parties in India . However, Congress needs a complete revision of its strategy and leadership in order to get back to its former glory.

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BY : AJAY THOMAS

ajaythomaswayanad24@gmail.com